RELATIONSHIPS AMONG NUMBER OF SHEEP, MILK PRODUCTION, DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE IN ÇANAKKALE PROVINCE: ARDL BOUND TEST APPROACH

Abstract

In this study, the relationships among number of sheep, sheep milk production, dollar exchange rate and gold price in the period of 1991-2017 in Çanakkale province were analyzed. In the analysis, it was determined that the number of sheep, milk production and dollar exchange rate series were stationary in the first order and stationary in the second order in gold price series. For this reason, the relationship between the mentioned series was investigated by the Bound test. The lag length in the study was 4. The long-term predicted model was ARDL (4,4,2,4). According to the results of the Bound test, the relationship between sheep milk production and number of sheep, dollar exchange rate and gold price was found as a long-term and statistically significant. The coefficient of the error correction variable was estimated as -1,496. There was a positive relationship between milk production and the number of sheep and dollar exchange rate in the long term, and a negative and statistically significant relationship was found between milk production and gold price in the long term. As a result of the diagnostic tests, the coefficient of determination (R²) and adjusted determination coefficient (Adj. R²) and Akaike info criterion (AIC) were estimated as 0.999, 0.998 and 10.177, respectively. Because heteroscedasticity test showed that nR² test statistic was 18.151 and p = 0.379>0.05, it was understood that there was no variance problem in the model and the model was established correctly.