THE ROLE OF NON-CONVENTIONAL SOURCES IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND

Abstract

Global energy demand is continuously on the rise although it is observed at different levels in developed and developing countries. According to BP 2018 data, the primary energy consumption of the world has been 13.5 billion TEP showing an increase of 2.2% compared to the previous year. Despite this, the geographical distribution of the fossil fuels having a share of 87% in the world energy consumption is not symmetrical. For this reason, the increasing energy demand has brought along international problems in the areas where fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas are used (coal has a more regular geographical distribution compared to oil and natural gas). Although the share of renewable energies in the world energy consumption has increased year by year, fossil fuels will be predominant in the total energy consumption for the next 30 or 40 years according to the estimations. So, different energy sources are of strategic importance for especially countries having a high energy consumption and energy dependence. In this regard, non-conventional sources (produced through new techniques other than conventional methods) such as shale gas and shale oil have a very effective potential in covering the energy demand. Since the beginning of 2000s, the USA has made significant investments in shale gas and oil sand and reached positive enough results to divert its energy policies by reducing its resource dependence on the Middle East. Thanks to these investments, the natural gas prices have declined considerably compared to 10 years ago, in the USA. Besides, the country will obtain the ¾ of its total gas production from shale gas in 2035 according to the estimation of BP. The USA, Canada, China and Argentine have increased the value of shale gas and shale oil in commercial terms. According the EIA 2040 energy projections, the production of oil sand is expected to reach 10 million barrels a day. Shale resource investigations are continued in many counties, principally Algeria, Australia, Colombia, Mexico and Russia. The U.S. Ministry of Energy indicates that there are 345 billion barrels of shale oil in total, across 42 countries. In this study, the current and possible role of non-conventional energy sources in the global energy system is discussed. Quantitative methods were used in the study.