DETERMINING THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG NUMBER OF GOATS, MILK PRODUCTION AND DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE BY BOUND TEST IN TURKEY

Abstract

In this study, relationships among the presence number of goat, milk production and the dollar exchange rate were analyzed in the period 1981-2017. In the analysis, since the number of goats and milk production and the dollar exchange rate series were stationary at different grades, the relationships between them were examined by the Bound test. The lag length was determined as 8 and predicted long-term model was the ARDL (1,1,4) model. According to the results of the Bound test, a long-term relationship between number of goat, milk production and dollar exchange rate were statistically significant. This relationship was positive. According to the results of the error correction model, a significant relationship was found between milk production and all other variables. The error correction coefficient value was -0.3056, and against imbalances and shocks in the short term, 30.56% of the deviation in the long term can be eliminated after 1 period. At the results of Diagnostic tests, the coefficient of determination (R²) and the adjusted determination coefficient (Adj. R²) were estimate as 0.979 and 0.972 respectively. Hence, it was understood that there was no autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity problem in the predicted model, and the error term had normal distribution, and that the model was set up correctly.

Keywords: Turkey, number of goat, milk production, Bound test, dollar exchange rate