THE ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE IN TURKEY (2003-2020)
Abstract views: 474 / PDF downloads: 453
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.8.2.05Keywords:
Intererst Rate, Exchange Rate, Causalitiy Analysis, Cointegration AnalysisAbstract
Interest rate and exchange rate stand out as two important factors in terms of macroeconomic stability in economies. For this reason, the interaction between exchange rate and interest rate should be taken into account in the regulation of economic policies. In this study the causality and cointegration relationship between exchange rate and interest rate in Turkey for 2003-2020 period are examined and mutual relationship in the long term is identified.
Downloads
References
AGENOR, P.R., MCDERMOTT, J. & ÜÇER, M. E. (1997). Fiscal Imbalances, Capital Inflows, and The Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkey. IMF Working Paper, 97(1), 1-20.
AYLA, D. (2019). Türkiye’de Faiz Oranı ile Döviz Kuru İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(17), 289-308.
BAL, O. (2012). Döviz Kuru, Mevduat Faiz Oranı, Enflasyon ve Devlet İç Borçlanma Senetleri İlişkisi (1994–2008). Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 3, 1-20.
BAŞOĞLU, U. (2000). Finansal Serbestleşme ve Uluslararası Portföy Yatırımları. Balıkesir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3(4), 88-99.
BAUTISTA, C. C. (2003). Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Dynamics in the Philippines: A DCC Analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 10, 107-111.
BJORNLAND, H.C. (2008). Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Interactions in a Small Open Economy. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 110(1), 197-221
CAMBAZOĞLU, B. & KARAALP, H. S. (2012). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması Döviz Kuru Kanalı: Türkiye Örneği. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 19(2), 53-66.
CHAKRABARTI, A. (2006). Real Exchange Rates and Real İnterest Rates Once Again: A Multivariate Panel Cointegration Analysis. Applied Economics, 38, 1217-1221.
CHEN, S. S. (2006). Revisiting the Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus: A MarkovSwitching Approach. Journal of Development Economics, 79, 208-224.
CHO, D. & WEST, K. D. (2001). Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in The Korean, Philippine and Thai Exchange Rate Crises. The National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on Management of Currency Crises.
DASH, P. (2004). The Relationship between Interest Rate and Exchange Rate in India. Sixth Annual Conference on Money and Finance in the Indian Economy, March, 25-27.
DEKLE, R., HSİAO, C. & WANG, S. (2002). High Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Stabilization in Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand: An Empirical Investigation of the Traditional and Revisionist Views. Review of International Economics, 10(1), 64–78.
DOĞAN, İ., AFŞAL, M. Ş., AYDIN, B. & GÜRBÜZ, S. (2017). Faiz Oranları ve Döviz Kuru Dönemsel Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. International Journal of Academic Value Studies, 3(13), 199-205.
ENGLE, R. F. & GRANGER, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
FAINI, R. & DE MELO, J. (1990). Adjustment, Investment, and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries. The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, 1-40.
FURMAN, J. & STIGLITZ, J.E. (1998). Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 1-135.
GOTTSCHALK J. & MOORE, D. (2001). Implementing InflationTargeting Regimes: The Case of Poland. Journal of Comparative Economics, 29(1), 24.39.
GRANGER, W.J.C. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(8), 424-438.
GUJARATI, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics. The McGraw−Hill Companies, 4th Edition.
GÜL, E., EKİNCİ, A. & ÖZER, M. (2007). Türkiye’de Faiz Oranları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1984-2006. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 21-31.
GÜMÜŞ, İ. (2002). Effects of the Interest Rate Defense on Exchange Rates During the 1994 Crisis in Turkey. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, 14, 1-16.
HOFFMANN, M. & MACDONALD, R. (2009). Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials: A Present Value Interpretation, European Economic Review, 53, 952-970.
JOHANSEN S. & JUSELİUS, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration - with Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 211-244.
KARACA, O. (2005). Türkiye’de Faiz Oranı ile Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişki: Faizlerin Düşürülmesi Kurları Yükseltir mi?. Türkiye Ekonomik Kurumu Tartışma Metni, 14, 1-20.
KARAMUSTAFA, O. & KÜÇÜKKALE, Y. (2002). Türkiye’de Kriz Döneminde Kur-Faiz-Borsa İlişkilerinin Dinamik Analizi. Banka, Mali ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 11, 47-56.
KOFOĞLU, İ. H., KÜÇÜKKALE, Y. & YAMAK, R. (2018). Faiz Oranları, Döviz Kurları ve Çekirdek Fiyat Endeksleri Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkiler: Türkiye Örneği. Journal of Social Sciences of Muş Alparslan University, 6(6), 1111-1118.
KRAAY, A. (2000). Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies during Speculative Attacks?. The World Bank, 1-46.
MARIUS, A.A., CĂPRARUA, B., IHNATOV, I., & TİWARİ, A. K. (2017). The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Interest Rates in A Small Open Emerging Economy: The Case of Romania. Economic Modelling, 261-274.
PARAMATİ, S. R. & RAKESH, G. (2013). An Empirical Relationship between Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and Stock Returns. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 56, 168-181.
RASHID, A. & HUSAIN, F. (2013). Capital Inflows, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate Volatility: An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages. The Pakistan Development Review, 52(3), 183-206.
SAĞLAM, Y. & YILDIRIM, M. (2007). 2001 Krizi Sonrası Uygulanan Faiz ve Kur Politikalarının Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkileri. Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi ve Avrupa Araştırmalar Merkezi, Güncel Ekonomik Sorunlar Kongresi Bildirisi, 197.
SÁNCHEZ, M. (2005). The Link between Interest Rates and Exchange Rates Do Contractionary Deprecations Make A Diffirence?. European Central Bank Working Paper, 58, 1-55.
SARAÇ, T.B. & KARAGÖZ, K. (2015). Impact of Short-term Interest Rate on Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkey. Procedia Economics and Finance, 38, 195-202.
SEVER, E. & MIZRAK, Z. (2007). Döviz Kuru, Enflasyon ve Faiz Oranı Arasındaki İlişkiler: Türkiye Uygulaması. SÜ İİBF Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13, 265-283.
SEVER, E. (2004). Döviz Kuru Rejimleri ve Ekonomik Etkileri Bakımından Türkiye’de Uygulanan Döviz Kuru Politikalarının Analizi. İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı Doktora Tezi.
ŞENTÜRK, M. & DÜCAN, E., (2004). Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru-Faiz Oranı ve Borsa Getirisi İlişkisi: Ampirik Bir Analiz. Business and Economics Research Journal, 5(3), 67-80.
WESTERLUND, J. (2006). Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(1), 101-132.
WOGLOM, G. (2003). How Has Inflation Targeting Affected Monetary Policy in South Africa?. The South African Journal of Economics, 71(2), 1-27.
YÜCEL, E. & ÖZMEN, M. (2010). Faiz Oranı, Döviz Kuru ve Borsa Endeksi Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1989-2009 Türkiye Uygulaması. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 12(3), 213-244.
ZENGİN, A. (2001). Reel Döviz Kuru Hareketleri ve Dış Ticaret Fiyatları (Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 27-41.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2021 Jolistence Publications
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
When the article is accepted for publication in the Journal of Life Economics, authors transfer all copyright in the article to the Holistence Publications.The authors reserve all proprietary right other than copyright, such as patent rights.
Everyone who is listed as an author in this article should have made a substantial, direct, intellectual contribution to the work and should take public responsibility for it.
This paper contains works that have not previously published or not under consideration for publication in other journals.