Uluslararası hizmet ticaretinin cari denge ve ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkileri: Türkiye örneği

Selim İnançlı; Mustafa Torusdağ

doi:10.47243/jos.3.1.03

Authors

Selim İnançlı Sakarya University/TURKEY https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7363-6216
Mustafa Torusdağ Van Yüzüncü Yıl University/TURKEY https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8839-0562

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47243/jos.3.1.03

Keywords:

Current Account Deficit, Economic Growth, Trade in Services, Causality Analysis, Turkey

Abstract

In the last 30 years, with the rapid developments in information, production and communication technologies, the share of goods and services in world trade has been constantly increasing. Important developments have been achieved in international service areas such as tourism, construction and contracting services and transportation in turkey. Turkey's international services trade revenues positively affect the current account balance and economic growth. In this study, the relationship between the current account balance and economic growth of international service trade in turkey was analyzed using annual data covering the period 1990-2020. For this, ADF (1970) and DF-GLS unit root tests, Bayer-Hanck cointegration test and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality tests were applied. According to the causality analysis findings, it was concluded that there is a one-way causality relationship from growth to services trade and a two-way causality relationship between current account deficit and services trade.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Mustafa Torusdağ, Van Yüzüncü Yıl University/TURKEY

Dr. Öğr. Üyesi

VAN YÜZÜNCÜ YIL ÜNİVERSİTESİ/İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ/İKTİSAT BÖLÜMÜ/İKTİSAT POLİTİKASİ ANABİLİM DALI

References

ABU-BADER, SULEIMAN & ABU-QARN, AAMER S., (2005). Financal Development And Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Egypt. Monaster Center For Economic Research, Discussion Paper No: 05-14.

AKTÜRK, L.N., YILANCI, V. & BOZOKLU, Ş. (2014). Spot ve Türev Piyasalar Arasındaki Etkileşim: Türkiye Örneği. 1. Karadeniz ve Balkan Ekonomik ve Politik Araştırmalar Sempozyumu, Zonguldak.

ARI, A. (2016). Türkiye’deki Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik İlişkisinin Analizi: Yeni Bir Eşbütünleşme Testi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(2), 57-67.

ARNOLD, J., B. S. JAVORCIK & A. MATTOO (2006). The Productivity Effects of Services Liberalization: Evidence From the Czech Republic. World Bank Working Paper.

ARNOLD, MATTHIAS JENS & diğ. (2007). Services Reform And Manufacturing Performance: Evidence From India. Centre for Economic Policy Research, CEPR Discussion Paper No: 8011, London.

AYDIN, D. (2009). Hizmet Ticaretinin Serbestleştirilmesi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Marmara Üniversitesi. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü. İstanbul.

BAYER, C. & HANCK, C. (2012). Combining Non‐ Cointegration Tests. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 34(1), 83-95.

BANERJEE, A., DOLADO, J. & MESTRE, R. (1998). Error-Correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-Equation Framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19, (3), 267-83.

BOSWIJK, P.H. (1994). Testing for an Unstable Root in Conditional and Unconditional Error Correction Models. Journal of Econometrics, 63, 37–60.

ÇATALBAŞ, N. (2005). Uluslararası Hizmetler Ticaretinin Serbestleştirilmesi ve Gelişme Yolundaki Ülkelere Etkileri (Türkiye Uygulaması). Doktora Tezi, Eskişehir Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Eskişehir.

ÇEŞTEPE, H., H. VERGIL, & H. ERGÜN (2012). Hizmet Ticaretinin Büyümeye Etkisi: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Business And Economics Research Journal, 3 (4), 91-105.

DICKEY, D. A. & FULLER W. A. (1979). Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Timeseries with A Unit Root. Journal of The American Statistical Society, 75, 427–431.

DICKEY, D. A. & FULLER, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, p. 1057-1072.

DOLEDO, J., JENKINSON, T. & SOSVILLA-RIVERO, S. (1990). Cointegration and Unit Roots. Journal of Economic Surveys, 4, 249-273.

DÜLGER, F. & M., F., CIN (2002). Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru Dinamiklerinin Belirlenmesinde Parasalcı Yaklaşım ve Eşbütünleşme Yöntemiyle Sınama. ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 29 (1-2), 47-68.

EL KHOURY, A. C. & A. SAVVIDES (2006). Openness in Services Trade and Economic Growth. Economic Letters, 92 (2), 277-283.

ELLIOTT, G., ROTHENBERG, T. J. & STOCKJ.H. (1996). Efficient Tests for An Autoregressive Unitroot. Econometrica, 64,813–836.

ENGLE, R.F. & GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.

ESCHENBACH, FELIX & HOEKMAN, BERNARD (2005). Services Policy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Economies, 1990-2004. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3663.

FASEA, M.M.G. & ABMA, R.C.N. (2003). Financial Environment and Economic Growth in Selected Asian Countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 14, 11–21.

FISHER, R. A. (1932). Statistical Methods for Research Workers, In: Breakthroughs in Statistics. Springer, New York.

FUNG, MICHAEL K. (2009). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Convergence Or Divergence?. Journal Of International Money and Finance, 28, 56–67.

FRANCOIS, J. & B. HOEKMAN (2010). Services Trade and Policy. Journal of Economic Literature, 48 (3), 642-692.

GAUTAM, BISHNU PRASAD (2011). Tourism and Economic Growth in Nepal. Nepal Rastra Bank Economic Review, 23 (2), 18-30.

GOVINDARAJU, V.G.R.C. & CHOR FOON TANG (2013). The dynamic links between CO2 emissions, economic growth and coal consumption in China and India. Applied Energy,104, 310–318.

GÖCEN, S. (2020). Ekonomik Gelişme ve Kadın İş

Gücü İstihdami: Türkiye İçin Nedensellik İlişkisi İncelenmesi. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (29), 45-60.

GÖRMÜŞ, A., NAZLIOĞLU, S. & SOYTAS, U. (2017). High-Yield Bond and Energy Markets. Energy Economics, 69, 101-110.

İĞDE, E. (2010). Yapısal Değişiklik Altında Birim Kök Testleri ve Bazı Makro Iktisadi Değişkenler Üzerine Uygulamalar. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ekonometri Anabilim Dalı, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Adana.

İZOLLUOĞLU, Z. (2019). Zaman Serileri Birim Kök Testleri ve Bir Uygulama, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İnönü Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Malatya.

JOHANSEN, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54.

KIRATLI F. (2019). Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de Hizmet Ticaretinin Gelişimi, İktisadi, İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4 (9), 146-158.

KIM, J. & J.D. KIM (2000). Liberalization of Trade in Services and Productivity Growth in Korea. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, Vol: 11.

KING, ROBERT G. & LEVINE, ROSS (1993). Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Growth: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, North-Holland, 513-542.

KOCA, A. & YILDIRIM, N. (2021). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Hizmet İhracatının Temel Belirleyicileri: Zaman Serisi Analizi. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 39 (3), 441-458.

KONAT, G. (2021). Public Expenditure and Foreign Trade Relationship in Turkey: Fourier Causality Approach. International Journal of Management Economics and Business, 17 (3), 900-917.

KÖLEOĞLU, N., & DEMIREL, E. (2019). Türkiye’nin Önemli Turizm Kentlerindeki Havalimanlarının Etkinliklerinin Veri Zarflama Analizi Yöntemiyle Ölçülmesi. Seyahat ve Otel İşletmeciliği Dergisi, 16(3), 352-365.

KREISHAN, FUAD M., (2011). Time-Series Evidence for Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Case Study of Jordan. International Management Review, 7(1), Jordon, 89-93.

LI, X., GREENAWAY, D., & HINE, R. C. (2005).Imports of Services and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Approach. Informacion Comercial Espanola-Monthly Edition, 824, 7.

LI, X., GREENAWAY, D., HINE, R.,C.(2003), Imports of services and economic growth: A dynamic panel approachll, GEP, School of Economics, University of Nottingham, SETTI.

MADDEN ve diğ. (1998). CEE Telecommunications Investment and Economic Growth. Information Economics and Policy, 10 (2), 173-195.

MATTOO ve diğ. (2001). Measuring Services Trade Liberalization and Its Impact on Economic Growth: An Illustration. World Bank Polıcy Research Working Paper, 2655.

MATTOO, A, R. RATHINDRAN & A. SUBRAMANIAN (2006). Measuring Services Trade Liberalization and its Impact on Economic Growth: An Illustration. Journal of Economic Integration, Vol: 21, 64-98.

MISHRA ve diğ. (2011). Service Export Sophistication and Economic Growth. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 5606, The World Bank.

NAZLIOĞLU, S., GÖRMÜŞ, N., A. & SOYTAŞ, U. (2016). Oil Prices and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Gradual-Shift Causality and Volatility Transmission Analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168– 175.

NAZLIOGLU, S., GORMUS, N., A. & SOYTAS,U. (2018). Oil Prices and Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Structural Shifts in Causal Linkages. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(1), 105-117.

NIELSON, J. & D. TAGLIONI (2004). Services Trade Liberalisation: Identifying Opportunities and Gains. OECD Trade Policy Working Papers.

NIŞANCI ve diğ. (2011). Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme: Statik ve Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, Selçuk Üniversitesi, 16(22).

ODHIAMBO, NICHOLAS M., (2008). Financial Depth, Savings and Economic Growth in Kenya: A Dynamic Causal Linkage. Economic Modelling, 25, Economic Department, University of South Africa, 704–713.

ÖZSAĞIR, A. & AKIN, A. (2012). Hizmetler Sektörü İçinde Hizmet Ticaretinin Yeri ve Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analizi. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11 (41), 311-331. Toda, H. Y. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregression with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225–250.

YAPRAKLI, S., TEMURLENK, M., S., TÜRKMEN, A. & DOKER, A., C. (2014). Hizmet Ticaretinin Geçiş Ekonomileri Üzerindeki Etkileri: 2000-2010. International Conference on Eurasian Economies, 1-2Temmuz 2014, Makedonya, 1-9.

ZEBAZE AND KECK (2009). Telecommunications Services in Africa: The Impact of WTO Commitments and Unilateral Reform on Sector Performance and Economic Growth. World Development, 37 (5), 919-940.“https://data.tuik.gov.tr/bulten/ındex?p=uluslararasi-hizmet-ticareti-ıstatistikleri-2019-37496”, Erişim Tarihi: 07.12.2021.

Uluslararası hizmet ticareti istatistikleri-2020, www.tuik.gov.tr.